The Chicago Department of Aviation announced Thursday that it expects more than 3.76 million passengers to pass through O’Hare and Midway International Airports during the spring break travel period, which runs from March 19 through March 30. This represents a 13% increase over last year at O’Hare alone. The announcement was delivered with the unearned confidence of a city that has apparently decided the laws of logistics are optional.

What the press release did not emphasize — though perhaps should have led with — is that this surge is arriving five weeks into a government shutdown that has left roughly 50,000 TSA agents nationwide working without paychecks. The shutdown, which began February 14 in what can only be described as the worst Valentine’s Day gift in federal history, is the third funding lapse in a year. TSA agents at O’Hare have been screening passengers for free since mid-February, a business model previously attempted only by unpaid interns and people who lose bets.

“We are fully prepared to welcome travelers,” said a Department of Aviation spokesperson, using the word “prepared” in a way that would make a dictionary uncomfortable. Thursday alone saw an estimated 296,000 passengers at O’Hare — the airport’s projected busiest day of the period — funneled through security checkpoints staffed by agents whose last paycheck arrived when it was still winter.

The situation has produced wait times that airport officials have diplomatically described as “longer-than-usual,” a phrase doing extraordinary load-bearing work. Travelers arriving for morning flights reported security lines extending past the ticketing counters, through the terminal doors, and into what one passenger described as “basically the parking garage.” A family of four from Naperville told reporters they had arrived three hours early for a domestic flight and were “cautiously optimistic” about making their connection in Denver, which departed in four hours and twelve minutes.

Meanwhile, Midway International Airport — O’Hare’s smaller, scrappier sibling — is projecting a comparatively modest 1.4% increase in spring break volume. A Midway spokesperson noted that the airport “remains committed to providing a smooth travel experience,” a statement that veterans of the Southwest Airlines terminal received with the quiet dignity of people who have learned not to expect things.

The spring break period also coincides with CPS’s weeklong spring vacation, meaning that the 296,000 daily travelers at O’Hare will include a significant contingent of children who have never been through airport security before and are about to learn that their water bottle is, apparently, a threat to national security. TSA’s official guidance encourages passengers to “arrive early and pack smart,” advice that reads less like a helpful tip and more like a hostage negotiator buying time.

Airlines, for their part, have responded to the projected chaos with the measured calm of industries that have already collected everyone’s money. United Airlines noted that it is “adding capacity on key routes,” while American Airlines encouraged travelers to “check their flight status regularly,” which is airline for “we make no promises.” One aviation analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, estimated that approximately 14% of all spring break flights out of O’Hare will experience “some form of delay,” a figure he described as “actually not bad, historically, which tells you everything you need to know.”

The Department of Aviation’s press release concluded by reminding travelers that both airports offer “a variety of dining and shopping options” — a detail that suggests the city has made peace with the idea that many passengers will be spending enough time in Terminal 3 to develop a favorite restaurant there. As of press time, a TSA agent at O’Hare’s Terminal 1 was entering her thirty-sixth consecutive day of screening carry-on luggage for the federal government, unpaid, while a twenty-year-old in a Cancún tank top argued that his oversized bottle of sunscreen should count as a medical necessity.