Global oil prices jumped nine percent over the weekend amid escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, sending Brent crude to nearly $80 per barrel and U.S. benchmark crude to $73. Stock futures sank. Markets rattled. And in Chicago, a city whose emotional well-being is inextricably linked to the availability of deep dish pizza, supply chain economists began sounding an alarm that no one wanted to hear: the cheese might not make it.

“People don’t think about this, but mozzarella is a logistics-intensive product,” said Dr. Priya Anand, a supply chain analyst at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, during an emergency briefing Monday morning that she convened on her own initiative. “It’s produced primarily in Wisconsin, transported via refrigerated trucks that run on diesel, and delivered to approximately six hundred pizza establishments across the Chicagoland metro area on a just-in-time basis. When fuel costs spike, that entire system comes under stress.”

Dr. Anand’s models, which she acknowledged were “built last night between 11 PM and 3 AM,” suggest that a sustained ten-percent increase in fuel prices could raise mozzarella delivery costs by fourteen percent within three weeks, leading to either price increases at the counter or—in what she termed the “worst-case scenario”—temporary cheese rationing at high-volume deep dish establishments by mid-April.

“I want to be clear: we are not there yet,” Dr. Anand said, her voice carrying the precise calibration of someone trying very hard not to cause a panic while also absolutely wanting people to take this seriously. “But the conditions are present. This is a cheese-adjacent crisis.”

The oil price surge follows supply disruptions that sent shockwaves through global energy markets. S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures each dropped 1.7 percent in early Monday trading. Energy analysts say the situation remains volatile, with further price increases possible depending on developments in the region.

For Chicago’s pizza industry, which generates an estimated $1.2 billion annually and employs thousands, even modest supply chain disruptions can have cascading effects. Lou Malnati’s, Giordano’s, and Pequod’s all declined to comment on the specific cheese question, though a source at one major chain said they were “monitoring the situation closely and considering strategic mozzarella reserves,” a phrase that, in any other city, would be satirical.

Broader food costs are also expected to rise. The American Trucking Association noted Monday that diesel prices had already increased six cents per gallon since Friday, with further increases likely. For a city that consumes approximately 4.3 million pounds of mozzarella per month—a figure that Dr. Anand produced with the confidence of someone who has been thinking about this for a very long time—even small per-unit cost increases add up quickly.

Consumer response has been predictably Chicagoan. Within hours of the oil price news breaking, several deep dish establishments reported a noticeable uptick in Monday orders, which staff attributed to what one manager called “panic eating.” A line at Lou Malnati’s Wacker Drive location stretched to the door by 11:30 AM, with several customers telling reporters they were “stocking up, just in case.”

“I’m not taking any chances,” said one man carrying two full-sized deep dish pizzas to his car. “My family can survive a lot, but not a cheese shortage. That’s where I draw the line.”

Dr. Anand said she plans to update her models daily and will publish a formal “Mozzarella Vulnerability Index” on the Booth School’s website by Wednesday. “This is what I was trained for,” she said. “Probably.”